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Philippines
U.S. Marines run into the ocean during Marine Aviation Support Activity 23 in Palawan, Philippines, July 16, 2023, photo by Lance Cpl. Keegan Jones/U.S. Marine Corps
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
China's Gray-Zone Tactics Show the U.S.-Philippine Alliance Is Working
The United States should continue to offer military assistance and training to the Philippines so that Manila can increasingly counter China on its own while Washington continues to remind and warn Beijing that Article V must not be violated. This is the least risky option that also holds the greatest chance of success.
Read More »
Nov 7, 2023
War on the Rocks
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
SECURITY COOPERATION
COMMENTARY
With ASEAN Paralyzed, Southeast Asia Seeks New Security Ties
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations tirelessly proclaims its centrality to the region, but its inability to develop a coherent response to Chinese aggression or the crisis in Myanmar has effectively killed that claim. ASEAN members will inevitably continue to seek out alternative paths.
Read More »
Sep 18, 2023
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia
The election of the Philippines' new president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in May 2022 has proven exceptionally significant for Washington's security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Marcos has prioritized the maintenance of healthy ties to the United States, marking a sharp departure from the foreign policy of his predecessor.
Read More »
Feb 24, 2023
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY
COMMENTARY
Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do
In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.
Read More »
Jan 10, 2023
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
New Philippine President Marcos Jr. Likely Won't Repeat Duterte's Foreign Policy Mistakes
The May 2022 election of Bongbong Marcos as the next president of the Philippines will hold significant implications for Manila's foreign policy. He is likely to be influenced by the policies of both his father, former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, yielding a new government interested in engaging China while keeping the United States close by.
Read More »
May 10, 2022
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
Duterte's Dalliance with China Is Over
When Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte took office in 2016, he pledged to shift his country's foreign policy away from the United States in favor of China and Russia. His China-friendly policy is now effectively over, and he's doing his best to align the Philippines with the United States once more.
Read More »
Nov 2, 2021
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
EDUCATIONAL EQUITY
BLOG
Pandemic Education, Working Mothers, Predicting Cyber Threats: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the urban-rural divide in pandemic education, supporting working moms, what makes a good COVID-19 reopening plan, and more.
Read More »
May 14, 2021
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte's Best Efforts
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has time and again underscored his anti-U.S. and pro-Chinese orientation. Duterte now recognizes, in spite of his continued rhetoric to the contrary, that China is no friend.
Read More »
May 6, 2021
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
CIVIC EDUCATION
BLOG
Civic Education, 'Vaccine Nationalism,' Polar Icebreakers: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how to revive civic education in America's public schools, the costs of "vaccine nationalism," why the United States needs more polar icebreaking ships, and more.
Read More »
Dec 11, 2020
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
The Philippines Is Sticking Right by America's Side
The election of Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 raised concerns around Washington that he would undermine and perhaps even undo the U.S.-Philippines alliance in favor of closer ties with China. More than four years on, however, Manila continues to prioritize Washington over Beijing.
Read More »
Dec 2, 2020
The Diplomat
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
COUNTERTERRORISM
COMMENTARY
Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?
Government efforts to counter the propaganda and radicalization that lead to violent extremism are becoming more common around the world, but there's little research on whether such programs work. It is critical to conduct more research to tease out which programs are most effective.
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Sep 11, 2020
The RAND Blog
Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron @bodinebaron
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
China Refuses to Quit on the Philippines
When the Filipino people elected Rodrigo Duterte to become their next president in May 2016, China saw a distinct opportunity to pull the longtime U.S. ally away from Washington and into Beijing's strategic orbit. But it remains to be seen how the long-term geopolitical competition between the United States and China over the Philippines will play out.
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Jul 22, 2020
The Diplomat
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
SECURITY COOPERATION
COMMENTARY
China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines
China hailed Philippines President Duterte's announcement in February of an end to the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months as evidence the United States was losing the great power competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. But on June 2, Duterte decided to postpone the VFA termination, breathing new life into the decades-long agreement.
Read More »
Jun 18, 2020
The Diplomat
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
Are Military Purchases in SE Asia for Political Balancing a Good Use of National Defense Resources?
The Philippines has embarked upon a multi-phase, multi-year modernization of its armed forces, but some of the acquisition decisions appear to be driven by political symbolism rather than responsible military decisions. Using military procurement for political symbolism and paying a high price for it takes resources away from other pressing national security and domestic needs.
Read More »
May 7, 2020
Asian Military Review
Chandler Sachs, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini
SECURITY COOPERATION
COMMENTARY
There's Still Life in the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he would terminate the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Washington and Manila have until August 9 to save it or negotiate a new VFA to avert any further alliance crisis.
Read More »
May 4, 2020
Foreign Policy
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
PHILIPPINES
COMMENTARY
If U.S. Forces Have to Leave the Philippines, Then What?
If the United States were to lose access to bases in the Philippines, the effects would ripple outward. Maintaining alliances in the Indo-Pacific in all their manifestations is critical—and the details matter.
Read More »
Feb 28, 2020
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Caroline Baxter
THE ISLAMIC STATE (TERRORIST ORGANIZATION)
COMMENTARY
Southeast Asia Loves ISIS, but Is the Feeling Mutual?
As the ISIS core in Iraq and Syria attempts to rebuild, Baghdadi and his lieutenants will have to make difficult decisions about where to allocate resources. Now that the caliphate is gone and ISIS must transform into an insurgency, the largely untested lands of Southeast Asia may yield rich rewards.
Read More »
Sep 16, 2019
Foreign Affairs
Zachary Abuza, Colin P. Clarke
SECURITY COOPERATION
COMMENTARY
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
Read More »
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Colin P. Clarke
TERRORISM THREAT ASSESSMENT
COMMENTARY
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
Read More »
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Colin P. Clarke
THE ISLAMIC STATE (TERRORIST ORGANIZATION)
COMMENTARY
Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate?
The Philippines is a long way from the Islamic State's birthplace in the Middle East. But the jihadis have already seized and held a city there for three months. Even if the Philippines doesn't become a major node in the Islamic State's network, it will likely remain fertile ground for supporting the group and its violent agenda.
Read More »
Nov 28, 2017
Foreign Policy
Patrick B. Johnston, Colin P. Clarke
MILITARY SHIPS AND NAVAL VESSELS
COMMENTARY
The Crucial South China Sea Ruling No One Is Talking About
The PCA found in July that China's coast guard had breached several UNCLOS articles governing safety and navigation at sea. Hopefully, this will help build a legal case that abiding by basic maritime safety principles is in the interest of all countries, including China.
Read More »
Sep 16, 2016
The Diplomat
Lyle J. Morris
INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY
COMMENTARY
Judgment on the South China Sea: What's Next?
On July 12, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines' claims to maritime entitlements in the South China Sea. How China reacts could have far-reaching consequences for all nations that depend on a peaceful and integrated Southeast Asia.
Read More »
Jul 22, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Rafiq Dossani
INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY
COMMENTARY
The Day After: The Fallout from the Philippines Arbitration Case Against China
What compels compliance with rulings based on international law? Whether or not China will pay a political price for ignoring a U.N. Law of the Sea Convention ruling will to a large degree be determined by how forceful other states respond in the aftermath of court action.
Read More »
Jun 30, 2016
The National Interest
Lyle J. Morris
U.S. Marines help displaced Philippine nationals from the back of a KC-130J Super Hercules at Vilamor Air Base, Manila, Republic of the Philippines
INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
COMMENTARY
How Philippines Typhoon Aid Helps USA
In the wake of Haiyan there is no substitute for the capabilities of the U.S. military. At the level of national interest, however, does the case for tasking the U.S. military to international natural disasters hold up — particularly in a time when the Pentagon has seen its budget slashed?
Read More »
Nov 12, 2013
USA Today
Jonah Blank
A U.S. Marine and a Philippine airman assist an injured Filipino woman off a KC-130J Super Hercules at Vilamore Air Base, Manila, Republic of the Philippines
DISASTER RECOVERY OPERATIONS
COMMENTARY
Responding in Typhoon Haiyan's Wake
Prior responses to other recent disasters offer important lessons. Improved preparedness and efficient coordination mechanisms can help ensure that, when time is of the essence, the United States provides the most effective response.
Read More »
Nov 12, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard
The Philippine flag
PEACEKEEPING AND STABILITY OPERATIONS
COMMENTARY
High Hopes for Philippine Peace Plan
The government has successfully used a combination of counterinsurgency strategies against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in recent years, raising expectations that the new peace deal will also succeed—and in a manner that favors the government's interests, writes Molly Dunigan.
Read More »
Dec 6, 2012
U.S. News & World Report
Molly Dunigan
MAJOR COMBAT OPERATIONS
ANNOUNCEMENT
John Gordon Receives Arthur Goodzeit Book Award for 'Fighting for MacArthur'
Fighting for MacArthur: The Navy and Marine Corps' Desperate Defense of the Philippines, a World War II history written by John Gordon, has won 2011 the Arthur Goodzeit Book Award.
Read More »
Jun 8, 2012
COMMENTARY
Working Together: Megawati and the Terrorists
Published commentary by RAND staff
Read More »
Mar 11, 2002
Asian Wall Street Journal
Angel Rabasa
Quoted
Success of Ukraine's postwar rebuilding is no less important than the end of active hostilities. Rebuilding will be costly, so the Ukrainian government must ensure transparency of the process and decisions it makes.
Khrystyna Holynska
Khrystyna Holynska
Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND, and Ph.D. Student, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Source: The RAND Blog
A suspension of U.S. aid to Ukraine would be a huge victory for Russia, a fillip to China, a potentially fatal blow to Ukraine, and a seismic shock to the credibility and cohesion of the NATO alliance, not to mention calling into question the supposed leadership and democratic values of the United States in the eyes of the world.
James Black
James Black
Assistant Director, Defence and Security
Source: The RAND Blog
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