Vlad's Sociopolitical Update 240127
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Here is the recent version of "Vlad's sociopolitical update" regarding developments worldwide. I now focus on wars, economics, and India. I am interested in different topics, and if you have a favorite topic, please write to me about it, and I will try to publish it later. Here are some of my recent reads.
Open Global Rights: India, state of Manipur, and human rights violations
A video from Manipur, India, showing a mob attacking two women has sparked national outrage and highlighted the ongoing ethnic conflict between the Kuki and Meitei communities in the state. This conflict, which began in May 2023, has led to over 130 deaths and displaced more than 60,000 people. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was forced to address the human rights abuses two months after the violence began.
The conflict escalated following a Manipur High Court ruling in favor of the Meitei community's demand for "scheduled tribe" status, which includes exclusive land rights. The Supreme Court stayed the order, but tensions had already risen. The Kuki minority accuses the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Manipur, led by Chief Minister N. Biren Singh (who is Meitei), of supporting violence against them.
The Indian state has failed to protect the Kuki community's fundamental human rights and prevent discrimination, breaching international law obligations. The central government, under Modi, has been criticized for its inadequate response to the conflict. The majoritarian state government, accused of supporting the Meitei majority, has also been ineffective in handling the situation.
India's failure to adhere to the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) is evident. The Manipur High Court's decision, which did not consider the Kuki community's stance on the Meitei's tribal status, violates the obligation to consult and cooperate with Indigenous peoples. Additionally, the spread of rumors leading to violence shows India's failure to prevent propaganda promoting ethnic discrimination.
This crisis undermines India's credibility in protecting Indigenous peoples' rights. It could damage its international reputation and Prime Minister Modi's efforts to elevate India's global status. The upcoming national elections in April 2024 make this issue especially pressing for the ruling BJP.
Considering the state government's alleged bias and ineffectiveness, the central government should impose presidential rule in Manipur to address the conflict. Deploying neutral paramilitary troops and ensuring unbiased law enforcement is crucial. Neutral mediation is necessary for a peaceful resolution. India must commit to upholding international law to resolve this human rights crisis.
Chris Gray: Evaluating Brexit, honestly
Brexit has embedded a layer of complexity and dishonesty in British politics, making it increasingly difficult to discern its exact impact on various policy areas. As policies become a blend of continuity and discontinuity with EU membership, the effects of Brexit intertwine with other factors, complicating the task of honest evaluation.
Regarding import controls on goods from the EU, Brexit is clearly a contributing factor to potential border disruptions, delays, and increased costs for small and large businesses. The government's decision to delay and modify these controls further complicates the situation, raising questions about the UK's preparedness and the implications for biosecurity.
The shortage of medicines, such as those for epilepsy and diabetes, presents a more nuanced picture. While Brexit, particularly the fall in the value of sterling, is a factor, global supply chain issues and pre-existing policies also play significant roles. The situation illustrates how Brexit's impact can be interwoven with broader global challenges.
Environmental regulation, especially sewage discharge control, also demonstrates this complexity. Despite no significant legal divergence from EU standards, the potential for future divergence and regression exists. However, the UK's history of sometimes breaching EU regulations suggests that current issues are only partially attributable to Brexit.
The situation in the steel industry, with significant job losses at the Tata steel plant in Port Talbot, further exemplifies the multifaceted impact of Brexit. Long-term industry decline, state aid policies, and international trade dynamics contribute, making isolating Brexit's specific effects challenging.
Evaluating Brexit's impact requires a nuanced and honest approach, avoiding exaggeration or misrepresentation. While Brexit has undeniably had consequences, its role is often entangled with other factors, making it challenging to assess its direct effects. The objective measure of Brexit's success lies in whether it delivers on its initial promises of concrete, tangible benefits for Britain beyond the abstract ideal of sovereignty.
Pro Market: Antitrust cases around the world
As 2024 unfolds in Brussels, the focus is on "clearing out" existing policies and setting the stage for the European elections in June, followed by the new Commission at year's end. The Directorate General for Competition prioritizes reviving several long-standing investigations, notably against Apple Music Streaming, Microsoft Teams, Google Adtech, and Meta Marketplace. This move aims to demonstrate robust antitrust enforcement and progress in Digital Markets Act (DMA) regulation while proving the DMA's effectiveness in real-world applications.
The traditional role of DG Competition as a staunch defender against national champions and bad industrial policy faces new challenges. Influenced by shifts in the United States towards strong "antimonopoly" policies and resonating with critical EU Member States like France and Germany, the focus is shifting towards re-industrialization, strategic autonomy, and GDP growth. This transition marks a departure from the traditional approach, primarily focused on defending against lobbying, consolidation, and state aid.
Much of the conversation will revolve around the "theory of change" in digital policy. With an emphasis on enhancing European strategic autonomy, discussions will likely involve initiatives around public digital infrastructure investment, supporting European startups, and sovereign funds. The approach to merger enforcement and keeping pace with U.S. agencies in progressive enforcement, particularly in the pharma and digital sectors, will also be crucial.
Alessia D'Amico, Utrecht University School of Law, highlights the growing integration of competition law and data protection, spurred by cases like Meta and the Digital Markets Act. She foresees increased cooperation between competition and data protection authorities, following precedents set in 2023.
Inge Graef, Tilburg Law School, predicts that developing market investigation tools at the national level will be a crucial trend. Inspired by the UK's model, these tools, like the one adopted by Germany, enable authorities to address market failures without proving a violation of competition or consumer rules.
Filippo Lancieri, ETH Zurich Center for Law & Economics and the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, notes the significance of the Digital Services Act (DSA) alongside the European Digital Markets Act. The DSA, with its transparency obligations and content moderation requirements, is poised to transform online business practices and user experience, with potential implications for the competitive landscape in digital markets.
2024 in EU competition law and digital regulation is shaping into a year of vigorous enforcement, strategic integration of different policy tools, and adaptation to new digital realities. The outcomes of these efforts will likely set the tone for the EU's competitive landscape in the digital age.
The Unpopulist: Recent events in India about the Ayodhya temple are about Hindu nationalism, intolerance, and hate.
In 1992, the Babri Masjid, a 16th-century mosque in India, was demolished by Hindu devotees, marking a shocking event in a country known for its religious tolerance and rule of law. This act signified the beginning of a significant shift in India's socio-political landscape. Now, 32 years later, this act of destruction is being reinterpreted as an act of Hindu devotion.
On January 22, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate a new Hindu temple on the site, symbolizing a turn towards Hindu nationalism and a departure from India's constitutional commitment to toleration and pluralism. This event is not just about the construction of a temple. Still, it represents a new India where the state actively promotes Hindu majority interests.
The change in India's political discourse is evident. In the late 1980s, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promoted "positive secularism." Still, now, both the BJP and the opposition Congress Party compete in asserting their Hindu identity, moving away from secular ideals. The BJP's rise and the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya have intensified the "Hindu-fiction" of political discourse, a trend also followed by smaller parties seeking favor with the Modi government.
This shift towards a Hindu-centric political and social narrative raises concerns about the future of India's diverse society. The state's involvement in religious matters, highlighted by the Ram temple project, suggests a move towards defining India primarily as a Hindu country. This development parallels the trends in neighboring South Asian countries where religious majoritarianism has led to the marginalization of minorities.
The inauguration of the new temple, seen as a triumph for the BJP, also reflects a broader transformation in India's identity and policies. There is a concern that this shift could affect India's social and economic development, drawing parallels with Sri Lanka, where ethnic chauvinism led to prolonged conflict and hindered progress.
The construction of the Ram temple is more than a religious event; it symbolizes a significant change in India's political ethos and its approach to religious diversity. The event signifies India's transition towards a Hindu-first policy, potentially impacting the nation's commitment to democratic and secular principles.
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